National Weather Service New York NY
1043am EDT Monday September 2 2024
Synopsis
High pressure builds into the region thru the middle of the week, gradually moving offshore mid to late week. A complex frontal system impacts the region late Friday through Saturday. High pressure returns late Sunday.
Near Term - Until 6pm This Evening
Northern stream upper trough axis slides into the NE US today, with a resultant weak surface trough developing across the coastal plain. A reinforcing Canadian cold front approaches this evening.
Scattered to locally broken cu development likely this afternoon in response, with isolated sprinkles possible.
Otherwise a dry and seasonably warm day, with gusty N winds in the morning advecting in a drier airmass that 24 hrs ago, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with comfortable Td's.
Short Term - 6pm This Evening Through Wednesday Night
A surface trough moves through tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. Dew points continue to drop into the 40s. Winds should diminish Monday night, especially inland, but not enough for optimal radiational cooling under clear skies. Lows are expected to drop to the middle and upper 40s across the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. 50s are expected elsewhere, even into NYC.
Tranquil conditions and below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday, with highs in the lower to middle 70s for the entire forecast area. Slightly warmer readings are expected Wednesday. Tuesday night seems to be the better night for outlying areas to radiate with winds expected to become light and variable as the center of the high approaches. Lows in the outlying areas will dip into the lower to middle 40s, while elsewhere will generally see lows in the 50s.
Long Term - Thursday Through Sunday
Offshore surface high pressure continues to move east Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper trough will be amplifying into the upper midwest and Great Lakes region Thursday through Friday as an area of weak low pressure along the Gulf coast states slowly begins to interact with the northern stream trough. The organizing souther low will interact with the northern cold front Friday into Saturday night. There remain some differences with the global guidance with the timing and placement of these systems. Trends have been for impacts from these systems for the beginning of the upcoming weekend. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible as the low tracks near or over the region as precipitable waters increases to near 2 inches, and a strong low level jet develops. The low then departs to the northeast Saturday night into Sunday, and have gone with a dry forecast by later Sunday.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal Thursday and Friday and then trend lower for Saturday into the beginning of next week. Sunday and Monday temperatures may be 5 to near 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Marine
Northerly wind gusts are expected to gust to 25 kt on the ocean waters tonight into Tuesday morning on the heels of secondary cold front with building Canadian high pressure from the northwest. Winds diminish Tuesday. Thereafter, winds and waves likely remain below SCA (Small Craft Advisory) criteria through Wednesday night.
An increasing and persistent easterly flow will allow ocean seas to build to SCA (Small Craft Advisory) levels during Friday. As a complex frontal system impacts the area waters Friday night through Saturday night SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions will remain on the ocean waters. There is a chance of SCA (Small Craft Advisory) conditions on the eastern Long Island Sound by late Saturday and into Saturday night as low pressure passes through the region. Conditions slowly improve on the ocean waters Sunday as a northwest flow develops behind departing low pressure.
Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week. There is a chance of moderate to heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday night with the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall.
Tides / Coastal Flooding
Rip current activity is expected to be moderate for all Long Island beaches today with a combo of 1 to 2 ft S/SE swells.
Rip currents are expected to be low on Tuesday with generally 1 ft SE and S swells.
NOAA New York NY Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None.
Marine
Small Craft Advisory from 8pm this evening to 8am EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
